Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, May 10, 2018
What happens to the Stock Market when VIX closes below 14 / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Troy_Bombardia
VIX closed below 14 yesterday for the first time since February 1, 2018. This study examines what happens next to the stock market (historically) when VIX closes below 14 for the first time in at least 3 months.
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Thursday, May 10, 2018
Stock Market Upside Breakout Pattern to New All Time Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Since before the start of 2018, we have been relying on our advanced predictive modeling systems, technical analysis and our understanding of the capital markets to help our members take advantage of the incredible price swings in 2018. For those that have been following our calls, we’ve pretty much nailed every market turn over the past 5+ months perfectly and have been able to call many of the tops and bottoms in the markets two to three weeks (or more) in advance. Honestly, do you know of any other research firm that can call marker reversals nearly a month in advance and be correct in timing it?
Thursday, May 10, 2018
How This Classic Market Theory Can Warn You of Big Stock Market Turns / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: EWI
Dow Theory non-confirmations attend the start of every big bear market
Dow Theory is a time-honored market analysis tool. Its name comes from Charles H. Dow, co-founder of The Wall Street Journal.
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Thursday, May 10, 2018
The S&P 500 and Treasury Yields: A 20-year perspective / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Donald_W_Dony
This is a chart comparison between the S&P 500 and the 10-year yields. It shows the rise in bond yields is a normal action during a bull market.
In the last phase of the 1980 to 2000 secular equity rise and throughout the 2003 to 2007 bull market, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields advanced.
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Wednesday, May 09, 2018
Stock Market Cycle Inversion... Watch Out Below! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures were as high as 2684.50, possibly completing Wave [v] of C of (2). Wave [v] is equal to Wave [i] at 2700.00. Wave C may go as high as 2717.00 in a flat Wave (2).
You can see that I have penciled in the upper trendline of a Triangle formation. However, Triangles are corrective affairs and neither Wave [1] nor (1) are corrective. This is setting up to be a bull trap of major proportions.
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Wednesday, May 09, 2018
Stock Market Study: Falling Initial Claims is Medium-long term Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Initial Claims made a new low for this economic expansion in April 2018. This is a medium-long term bullish sign for the stock market. Initial Claims leads the economy, which leads the stock market.
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Tuesday, May 08, 2018
Study: Does the year-over-year change in Corporate Earnings Lead the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
I concluded that the absolute value of corporate earnings does not consistently lead the stock market in a previous study. I.e. sometimes corporate earnings fall before the stock market falls, sometimes the stock market falls before corporate earnings fall.
But what about the rate of change in corporate earnings? Does the change in corporate earnings GROWTH (i.e. second derivative of corporate earnings) lead the stock market? It appears to be the case from 1990-present.
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Tuesday, May 08, 2018
Do Corporate Earnings Lead the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Corporate Earnings
By: Troy_Bombardia
I’ve been building more quantitative trading models recently. I know that some hedge funds calculate the stock market’s “fair value” and then trade around that fair value. For the record, this is not what I do with the Medium-Long Term Model.
This “fair value” is usually “the stock market’s average P/E ratio during certain market environments”. Here’s an example of how the stock market’s average valuation (P/E ratio) – aka “fair value” – changes based on changes in interest rates.
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Monday, May 07, 2018
The Stock Market Is Going To Crash / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
Well, everyone else has been calling for a market crash, so I thought maybe I should too. But, while I think the market will likely crash again, I don’t think it is going to happen just yet, as I still believe this bull market has several more years to run.
When I peruse the articles on Seeking Alpha, it seems to be en vogue today to be bearish. The headline articles discuss how the market has now moved into being a bear market, or that the VIX is about to skyrocket, or the market is overvalued, discussions of black swans, the impending debt crisis, etc.
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Monday, May 07, 2018
Stock Market Still Range Bound / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – The intermediate correction from 2873 should continue until about mid-May.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, May 07, 2018
US Stock Market Indexes Setup Bottom Confirmation Pattern / Stock-Markets / Articles
By: Chris_Vermeulen
On Wednesday, May 2, we issued a research post supporting our position that the markets were nearing an apex breakout and that critical support and resistance levels had established within the market. We indicated that volatility is usually quite high throughout these apex breakout moves with the potential for a “wash-out” price rotation in the works. In other words, as these apex breakouts happen, price can sometimes, falsely, break to one side or the other and rotate very quickly to the other side – creating what we call a “wash-out” price reversal.
Closing out this week, prices broke lower on Thursday, May 3, and reversed sharply before the end of the trading session to create a “wash-out” low formation which is indicative of a price bottom. We felt strongly that our ADL price modeling system’s analysis as well as this bottom formation are strong evidence that the US majors will enter a new upside price trend very quickly.
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Sunday, May 06, 2018
Stock Market Golden/Death Cross Model that Yields 16% per year / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
So far I’ve shown you 2 simple trading models that use 1 indicator per model: a Golden/Death Cross model and an Initial Claims model.
Here’s the beauty. When you combine 2 simple ideas and models together, you make it even better. Remember, I said traders who combine fundamentals with technicals perform the best.
Here’s the new model. It’s based off of the Golden/Death Cross Model, but it’s combined with an Initial Claims filter.
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Friday, May 04, 2018
One Sure Stocks Bear Market Sign / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Barry_M_Ferguson
Investors should always be on the alert for a bear market. Wouldn’t it be great if there was a clear sign that a bear market was forming? Well, in my opinion, there is.
I call it the formation of a Dikembe Mutombo Line. In our nanny-state, government manipulated, anti-capitalism, totally corrupted, illusion of wealth pseudo economy, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is the ultimate shiny object of hypnotism. The average person on the street has no idea whatsoever how they are being punked every single day.
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Thursday, May 03, 2018
Too Many Stock Investors on the Same Side of the Boat / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
SPX futures are down and appear to have declined beneath the May 1 low. The Dow is the first major Index to break its 200-day Moving Average on no news.
ZeroHedge observes, “Dow futures suddenly dropped at around 0745ET - led by a drop in the dollar and Treasury yields - breaking below its 200-day moving average...
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Thursday, May 03, 2018
Stock Market “Sell in May and go away” Study When Stocks Are Down YTD / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As you probably know, “Sell in May and go away’ states that the stock market is seasonally weak from May – September. We already demonstrated that it isn’t as weak as investors think in this study.
Some investors believe that May-September is not seasonally bearish IF…
- The stock market falls from January – April, AND…
- There’s no recession that year (a recession in 2018 is highly unlikely).
Thursday, May 03, 2018
Will Rising Bond Yields Send Stock Prices Tumbling? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: EWI
Conventional Wall Street wisdom says "rising rates are bad for stocks." Let's put that belief to a test.
One of the big financial news stories on April 24 was that the 10-year Treasury yield hit 3% for the first time since 2014.
The other big financial news story was that the DJIA closed 424 points lower on that day.
As you probably know, the conventional wisdom on Wall Street is that investors will sell stocks in favor of bonds when yields reach an attractive level. So, it's not surprising that many pundits blamed the DJIA's triple-digit decline on rising bond yields.
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Thursday, May 03, 2018
Global Stock Markets “Turn-of-the-Month” Effect Returns Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Dimitri_Speck
In Other Global Markets the “Turn-of-the-Month” Effect Generates Even Bigger Returns than in the US
Dear Investor,
the “turn-of-the-month” effect is one of the most fascinating stock market phenomena.
It describes the fact that price gains primarily tend to occur around the turn of the month. By contrast, the rest of the time around the middle of the month is typically less profitable for investors.
The effect has been examined extensively in the US market. In the last issue of Seasonal Insights I have shown the extent of the “turn-of-the-month” effect in the eleven largest international stock markets.
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Wednesday, May 02, 2018
Stock Market on FOMC Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures are trading in a narrow range around yesterday’s closing value. The FOMC concludes its meeting today and only leaves a policy statement for its trouble. It is possible that the policy statement may be used to shape expectations about the course of future rate hikes.
Be prepared for more upside as the Cycles Model suggests a “bump” higher before turning down. Short-term resistance at 2664.73 may be the target for today’s action, but a run at the 50-day Moving Average at 2688.85 isn’t out of the question.
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Tuesday, May 01, 2018
Consumers Have Finally Become Bearish on Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The Consumer Confidence survey also measures what consumers think the stock market will do. This is essentially a sentiment survey for the stock market.
Consumers were bullish on the stock market from Trump’s election until this month. Whenever the stock market goes at least 1 year without consumers being bearish on the stock market, the stock market tends to go higher in the medium-long term (historically).
Here are the historical cases in which consumers became bearish on the stock market after being consistently bullish for at least 1 year.
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Tuesday, May 01, 2018
A Big Stock Market Shock is About to Start / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Submissions
Martin C writes: In the latest week, the busiest for first-quarter reports, several companies warned about or cited higher costs. Shares of all three companies declined even though their quarterly earnings were mostly strong. Investors will be alert for more signs of rising costs next week, which brings results from several big consumer names like Kellogg and market-cap leader Apple. Also on tap will be a Federal Reserve meeting, the April jobs report and data on wages and inflation. In the face of it, the earnings for the first quarter of this year that companies have been announcing are superb and far ahead of the most optimistic expectations. The S&P 500 companies in the US are on course for an almost unfathomably good year-on-year increase of 24.6 per cent, according to Thomson Reuters. A month ago, brokers were braced for an increase of 18.5 per cent. The first quarter was the first reporting period since U.S. President Donald Trump in March imposed a duty on imports of steel and aluminum. Prices for those and other commodities have risen sharply, with U.S. crude oil up 7.5 percent in the first quarter.