Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, November 15, 2017
What "Too Confident to Save" Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: EWI
What "Too Confident to Save" Means for Stocks
Tuesday, November 14, 2017
The Dangers of Zero / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017
By: MoneyMetals
Zero is an important number in the psychology driving demand for bullion. There are periods when investors find the argument that gold or silver prices “will never go to zero” compelling.
The 2008 financial crisis and the years immediately following it are the most recent example. The fear of conventional securities and even the fiat dollar becoming worthless was palpable for many in the metals markets. Bullion demand hit record levels.
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Tuesday, November 14, 2017
Harry Dent’s Fourth Cycle: More Evidence of Stock Market Downturn / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Harry_Dent
One of the hardest things I’ve had to stake my name to was the concept of how sunspot cycles ebb and flow about every 10 years and the effect they have on our economy and stock markets…I’ve already got the label of “crackpot,” so giving skeptics more meat to chew on was tough. I did it anyway because I’d done my research (as I always do) and knew that we’ve had major or minor recessions about every 10 years!
They occurred in the early 1960s, early-to-mid 1970s, early 1980s, early 1990s, early 2000s, and between 2008/2009.
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Monday, November 13, 2017
Has the Stock Market’s Topping Process Begun? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Harry_Dent
In the last update I sent a while back, I was looking for either a top by mid- to late October or the beginning of a topping process into December or January. By the looks of things, it seems that second scenario is unfolding.My co-author on the new book, Zero Hour (out next Tuesday), Andrew Pancholi, also identified the largest ever turn point in his markettimingreport.com newsletter. He pinned that turn point to mid-October.
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Monday, November 13, 2017
Stock Market Critical Supports are Being Challenged / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures appear to be challenging the Ending Diagonal trendline near 2575.00 and Short-term support at 2578.41. The decline to the 50-day Moving Average at 2540.61 may be considered underway once those supports are broken. A break of the 50-day Moving Average in European stocks may trigger the same response in US stocks.
ZeroHedge reports, “S&P futures gave up early gains and were trading down -0.2%, as Donald Trump completes his first Asian tour and as pressure mounts on U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May, sending the pound plunging. European stocks fell, tracking many Asian shares as the Nikkei plunge accelerated.
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Monday, November 13, 2017
Short-Term Stock Market Uncertainty Following Recent Rally, Will Stocks Continue Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly:
Intraday trade: Our Friday's intraday trading outlook was bearish. It proved partly wrong because the S&P 500 index lost 0.1% (neutral), following slightly lower opening of the trading session. The market remained within relatively narrow intraday trading range. We still can see technical overbought conditions along with negative divergences. Therefore, intraday short position is favored again. Stop-loss is at the level of 2,600 and potential profit target is at 2,555 (S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish today. Our short-term outlook is neutral, and our medium-term outlook is neutral:
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Sunday, November 12, 2017
Anyone Else Want To Call For A Stock Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Avi_Gilburt
Hindenburg omens. Market valuations. Record low volatility. And, I am only scratching the surface of all the reasons paraded before investors as to why this market is, in their opinion, “too high.”
So, is this time different? Have we finally conquered the business cycle and the stock market will rally on forever?
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Sunday, November 12, 2017
Stock Market Correction Phase / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Andre_Gratian
Current position of the market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with no sign of a major top in sight.
Intermediate trend – Soon coming to an end.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, November 12, 2017
Who Are You Going to Trust, the Fed or $76 Trillion in”Smart Money”? / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
Let’s talk about inflation.
There are two types of inflation in the world… the “inflation” that you and I experience in the form of a rising cost of living induced by Central Banks devaluing our currencies…
…and the inflation that Central Banks are “targeting” in the bizarre claim that somehow hitting said targets will unleash economic growth.
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Saturday, November 11, 2017
Unemployment Rate Reaches Record Low, Positive for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Donald_W_Dony
The U.S. Unemployment rate has just reached a level not seen in over forty years.
In early November, the seasonally adjusted claims was 239,000. The 4-week moving average sat at 231,250 which is the lowest level since March 31, 1973 when it was 227,750.
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Friday, November 10, 2017
Can Stocks and Bonds go Down at the Same Time? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
TNX gapped up this morning in a possible Wave [iii] of 3 of (5). I spent a considerable amount of time evaluating the Waves and Cycles to arrive at this construction of the Wave pattern. The fact that the Wave had become very oversold alerted me to the possibility of stocks and bonds both in decline. An index may often rally an average of 3 weeks after a Master Cycle low.
The view that bonds go higher as stocks go down is only a recent phenomenon. What if both go down in a liquidity crisis? For example, Japan or China may sell their treasuries to forestall their stock market declines.
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Friday, November 10, 2017
STOCKS HIT AN AIR POCKET……AGAIN! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Enda_Glynn
Stocks got their fist little taste of pain yesterday as we close out this half cycle.
Full cycle losses in the coming bearmarket will extend to at least 60% in my estimation.
But it remains to be seen if this new decline is the beginning of something greater.
The DOW was down more than 250 points today in a possible series of 1,2 waves.
It is too early to say just yet,
But If I were a bull,
I might ask this question:
why do stocks nose dive, when everything is supposedly so great?
It has got to be a head sctratcher!
Friday, November 10, 2017
Stock Market Indexes Are in a Retracement Mode After Giving Their Signals / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The formation we see here is most likely a Leading Diagonal Wave (i). At the 2-hour scale we see a complete trip from top to bottom of the Cycle. A normal retracement would take Wave (ii) to the mid-Cycle resistance at 2584.39, which is a 58% retracement. The Fibonacci 61.8%, retracement is above the mid-Cycle resistance at 2585.29. It may not make it.
Thursday, November 09, 2017
Stock Market Decline May have Begun / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The VIX has given its buy signal at the 50-day Moving Average and appears capable of rising above its compressed Cycle Top, as well. Note the redrawn Elliott Wave structure which finally became clear at Friday’s Wave (2) low. No rules were violated in this pattern, just stretched to the limit. The EW structure now says we are in Wave 1 of (3), which should be a magnitude larger than Wave (1). Wave 1 should rise to the trendline at 16.66 or possibly to 17.28, which is the high in the Daily chart. The Head & Shoulders pattern which gives the Wave 3 target is still valid. It is possible that Wave 5 of (3) may rise to the mid-30’s.
Thursday, November 09, 2017
Stock Market Topping Action Or Just a Pause? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly:
Intraday trade: Our Wednesday's intraday trading outlook was bearish. It proved partly wrong because the S&P 500 index gained 0.15% (neutral), following slightly lower opening of the trading session. We still can see some technical overbought conditions along with negative divergences. Therefore, intraday short position is favored again. Stop-loss is at the level of 2,605 and potential profit target is at 2,555 (S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish today. Our short-term outlook is neutral, and our medium-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Thursday, November 09, 2017
Stock Market Dow Theory Divergence Returns Caution Warranted / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Christopher_Quigley
The bull price action momentum that returned to the Dow Transports September 11th last has now vanished, and is beginning to indicate renewed market weakness.
The Dow Industrials, the S & P 500 and the NASDAQ are displaying no such tendency. On the contrary, they show all the signs of a parabolic “blow-off”, which is the classic signature of a bull market termination.
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Wednesday, November 08, 2017
Markets are Warning, But No Major Sell Signal / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures are challenging the upper trendline of the Broadening Wedge formation. Should it break through, the next level of support appears to be the lower Diagonal trendline at 2570.00. These supports are what makes the decline appears controlled and manageable. However, once beneath them, the decline becomes stronger as the SPX hones in on the next target indicated by the formations. For example, the Ending Diagonal formation, once triggered, is often completely retraced, with a target near 2400.00.
The smaller Broadening formation was relabeled as an Orthodox Broadening Top due to the near-horizontal lower trendline. If so, the first decline may stop at the Cycle Bottom support at 2499.76. We should remain flexible to allow for the possible conflicts between formations. It will become clear in the end.
Tuesday, November 07, 2017
The Next Financial Crisis Will Reveal How Little Liquidity There Is / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2017
By: John_Mauldin
This is something I’ve been pondering for some time. I think the next crisis will reveal how little liquidity there is in the credit markets, especially in the high-yield, lower-rated space.
Dodd–Frank has greatly limited the ability of banks to provide market-making opportunities and credit markets, a function that has been in their wheelhouse for well over a century.
However, when the prices of massive amounts of high-yield bonds that have been stuffed into mutual funds and ETFs begin to fall, and the ETFs want to sell the underlying assets to generate liquidity, there will be no buyers except at extreme prices.
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Monday, November 06, 2017
The Stock Market- From Here to Infinity? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Plunger
Rambus has shown that the move upward in the stock market continues to be unimpeded. I would concur with the caveat that early next year it may peak and end the 9 year bull market, so far the second longest in history. Momentum is still powering higher, however internal deterioration has begun to be evident. Here is one possible scenario for the ultimate top:
Monday, November 06, 2017
Stock Market Topping Pattern Or Just Pause Before Another Leg Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly:
Intraday trade: Our Friday's intraday trading outlook was bearish. It proved wrong because the S&P 500 index gained 0.3% following slightly higher opening of the trading session. We still can see some short-term overbought conditions. Therefore, intraday short position is favored. Stop-loss is at the level of 2,605 and potential profit target is at 2,555 (S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish today. Our short-term outlook is neutral, and our medium-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral