Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Sunday, December 03, 2017

SPX Throws Over Two Trendlines, NDX Reverses From New High / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

VIX challenged its mid-Cycle resistance at 14.54 this week, breaking out above its November 15 high at 14.51. It has since made a 62% retracement. A further breakout above the Ending Diagonal trendlne suggests a complete retracement of the decline from January 2016, and possibly to August 2015.

Saturday, December 02, 2017

A Stock Market Reset May be Coming / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

I had a chance to compare my long-term charts with a couple other analysts’ charts of the DJIA and SPX over the past 8 years. While there are some differences in interpretation, we all seem to agree that the rally may be over.

The big curve ball was the errant Wave (B) in 2011 that threw off the analysis for a long while. The second curve ball was this year’s Wave structure. It turned out that Wave (4) bottomed in August instead of March, as I had been suggesting. The corrected pattern makes much more sense and appears complete.

Saturday, December 02, 2017

Volatility: Dead - or Just "Sleeping"? / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: EWI

Learn about the danger of "quiet markets" (and what happens after)

Watch as our own Murray Gunn explains why you shouldn't get too comfortable with the lack of volatility in the markets.

Friday, December 01, 2017

Is a Stock Market Tax Bill Surprise Coming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX futures declined to 2631.25 in the overnight session, but appears to have recovered the majority of its decline. We may have seen the completion of an a-b-c correction that may probe the upper trendline or go to 2650.00 before reversing back down.

ZeroHedge reports, “Markets were thrown for a loop in the past 24 hours, with the Dow first soaring nearly 400 points on Thursday on expectations that tax reform was a done deal, when drama emerged just after the close when the Senate tax bill came this close to falling apart when the proposed "Trigger" was ruled as invalid, pushing a Thursday tax vote to this morning, and as of this moment the bill appears in limbo with the GOP scrambling to find ways to appease the sudden loud opposition among budget hawks.”

Friday, December 01, 2017

3 Global Financial Markets That Could Indicate an Interim Correction / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: Gary_Tanashian

Here are a few global ETFs with little room to drop in order to avoid daily chart technical breakdowns. That does not mean the end of the larger up trends, but could signal oncoming intermediate corrections if they do fall further and close the week that way (pre-market is red). The question would be, are they leading the fiscally drunk US market and its chronic tweeter in chief/stock pumper?

Friday, December 01, 2017

Stock Market Parabolic Beginning? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Gary_Savage

The price action in the Dow and S&P suggest the parabolic phase may have begun.

Friday, December 01, 2017

Capital Repositioning Driving Stock Market Volatility Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recent moves in the FANG stocks shows that capital is starting to reposition within the global market.  As the end of the year approaches, expect more of this type of capital control to drive greater volatility within the markets.  At this time of year, especially after such a fantastic bullish run, it is not uncommon to see capital move out of high flying equities and into cash or other investments.

Thursday, November 30, 2017

SPX Giving Back its Gains / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX went parabolic this morning, nearly undoing my Wave analysis. The current Wave structure is invalidated at 2660.13. That was a close call. By 1:00 pm it was over.

Equities are at a spike high which makes it hard to go short, especially after this terrific short squeeze.

Thursday, November 30, 2017

Five Charts That Show We Are on the Brink of an Unthinkable Financial Crisis / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2017

By: John_Mauldin

Bonfires are fun to watch, but they eventually burn out.

Human folly apparently doesn’t, so we just keep adding to the absurdities. The volume of daily economic lunacy that lights up my various devices is truly stunning, and it seems to be increasing (you can find a previous series of charts in my free newsletter Thoughts from the Frontline, which you can subscribe to here).

Let’s take a look at a series of charts I received from my “kitchen cabinet” of friends.

Thursday, November 30, 2017

S&P 500 Fluctuates As Technology Stocks Sell Off / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly:
Intraday trade: Our Wednesday's intraday trading outlook was neutral. It proved accurate because the S&P 500 index lost 0.03%, following slightly higher opening of the trading session. The market broke above its short-term consolidation on Tuesday. We still can see negative technical divergences along with medium-term overbought conditions. However, there have been no confirmed negative signals so far. Therefore, we prefer to be out of the market today, avoiding low risk/reward ratio trades.

Our intraday outlook is neutral today. Our short-term outlook is neutral, and our medium-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Stock Market Bull Channel Trend Line / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Gary_Savage

The S&P is rapidly approaching its first test of the bull market channel trend line.

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

SPX in Throw-over / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX made a throw-over of its Ending Diagonal formation starting on February 12, 2016. A reversal back inside the Diagonal tells us the rally is over. All indices participated in this rally, which suggests this may be the final blow-off. The initial decline [Wave (1)] will usually go to the Daily Cycle Bottom at 2306.25. It is due during the week of 12-11. A very likely scenario may be an 8.6 day decline ending on mid-day December 11.

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

... / Stock-Markets / Reviews

By: Submissions

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

How to Forecast the Stock Market… from a Desert Island / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: EWI

"Sometimes a [price] pattern will clear up on a particular day and you must act…"

Monday, November 27, 2017

How to Know When a Stocks Bull Market Is About to End – Part I / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Knowing when a bull market is about to end is critical for both traders and investors. Why? Because once a bull market ends the price movement characteristics of stocks and indexes change dramatically and require different strategies to be used in order to profit from falling prices and increased volatility.

Over the next couple of weeks, we will be expanding on this topic to add several more parts because there are some really exciting things you should know as we move towards 2018.

So, let’s kick things off with the first few data points that tell us that the bull market is about to end.

Monday, November 27, 2017

S&P 500 At New Record High, Will Uptrend Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly:
Intraday trade: Our Wednesday's intraday trading outlook was neutral. It proved accurate because the S&P 500 index lost 0.1%, following neutral opening of the trading session. The market broke above its short-term consolidation last week. We still can see negative technical divergences along with medium-term overbought conditions. However, there have been no confirmed negative signals so far. Therefore, we prefer to be out of the market today, avoiding low risk/reward ratio trades.

Our intraday outlook is neutral today. Our short-term outlook is neutral, and our medium-term outlook is neutral:

Monday, November 27, 2017

The Insanity Of Stock Market Investors / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Avi_Gilburt

As I read articles in early 2016, the debate centered around how deep the “crash” is going to take us, and much of it was event-focused. As I now read articles as 2017 comes to an end, they are still discussing how deep the “crash” is going to take us, and it still remains event-focused. But, while many are debating that issue, I now see much debate on how high this market will take us.

When investors begin to turn towards the “how high” debate is the point in time where one must become truly worried about how high this market can take us. You see, market sentiment is a funny market driver. When the great majority of market participants speak in terms of inevitable crash, you should be looking for an imminent bottom. However, when the great majority are speaking in terms of “new paradigm,” or how the market will “certainly continue in its current trend,” then its time to begin to look towards a market top.

Monday, November 27, 2017

Stock Market Bulls Beware - We Are Finally Closing In On A Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Avi_Gilburt

When former bears call for a “New Golden Age” of the stock market, with targets of the DOW set at 100,000, well, it is clearly time for bulls to beware.

In fact, the Dow 100,000 prediction of this former bear is explained as follows:

“This is not some pie in the sky prediction.

Sunday, November 26, 2017

Stock Market Minor Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with no sign of a major top in sight.
 
 Intermediate trend –  Soon coming to an end – 2 wks?

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Saturday, November 25, 2017

Taxes, Macro Signals, Market Seasonality, US Stocks and Gold Miners / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: Gary_Tanashian

While politicians hammer out the details it is generally accepted that corporations and by extension the investor and asset owner classes are targeted for benefits under the coming Republican tax plan. The logical implication of that beneficial treatment is that barring a market meltdown in the interim, people looking to unload stock positions and take profits would tend to wait until January in hopes of gaining the 2018 tax benefit vs. 2017’s tax code.

Among the under performing sectors subject to tax loss selling in late 2017 I have selected the gold miners for this post because they tend to be counter-cyclical and “in the mirror” to the broad risk ‘on’ asset party currently ongoing. We have noted again and again that with the asset party in full swing the miners’ fundamentals cannot possibly look good, and at face value they don’t. Sector fundamentals like gold/oil and gold/materials ratios are not good and macro fundamentals like gold vs. stock markets, the economy (which is relatively strong) and the yield curve are not at all supportive either… as they currently stand.