Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, July 16, 2012
Sorry Stock Market Bulls, The Fed Will Not Engage in More QE. / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Graham_Summers
For well over a year now, I’ve been stating that the Fed will not be able to engage in Quantitative Easing (QE) unless systemic risk hits (think another 2008). My reasons for this are as follows.
First off, the political consequences of hitting “print” (inflation) have made themselves evident to everyone. Indeed, Bernanke was talking about this point as far back as May 2011. The below quote is from a Q&A session with Bernanke during that month.
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Monday, July 16, 2012
The Ultimate Stock Market Death Cross / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
And now, for the main event:
Finally I want to share with you news that the S&P is on the verge of an “ultimate” death cross (see chart below). This is where a 50-month moving average (currently at 1152) falls below the 200-month average (currently 1145). The Trend blogspot (link) tries to make some sense of this very rare event. They note that the averages came close to crossing in 1978 towards the end of the 1965-82 secular bear market, but just held. By contrast Japan suffered a monthly death cross in 1998 and 14 years later we are still in the firm embrace of the bear. Watch this space.
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Sunday, July 15, 2012
Beginning Sovereign Debt Crisis Endgame, Attack of the Zombie Banks and the New Religion of Europe / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
By: John_Mauldin
About this time two years ago I began to seriously work with Jonathan Tepper on our book Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changed Everything. It came out the following March. I remember vividly that in November of that year, as crisis after crisis hit Europe, and the first of about 20 summit meetings which were supposed to solve the crisis was convened, that Jonathan and I worried that the book would not be out in time to actually catch the Endgame before it happened (at least in Europe).
Sunday, July 15, 2012
Stock Market Significant Top, Downturn to Send Prices Into an Abyss / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Darah_Bazargan
The broad market averages are now revealing overwhelming evidence that a significant top is upon us. And in the coming weeks, I fully expect the world to witness a dramatic downturn that sends prices into an abyss.
Get ready Folks, as this upcoming event will be a force not to reckon with, and for those who deny such could suffer major losses in their investment portfolio.
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Sunday, July 15, 2012
Stock Market Uptrend Looks Corrective / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Tony_Caldaro
On a week to week basis it does not look like the market had done much: SPX 1355 last friday, SPX 1357 this friday. During the week, however, the market had quite a roller coaster ride. A gap up opening on tuesday was sold as the SPX hit 1362. Then the market hit its low for the week thursday morning at SPX 1325. A full reversal followed, and in just over 24 hours the week ended with a marginal gain. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, but the NDX/NAZ were -1.05%. Foreign markets were also mixed. Asian markets lost 1.9%, Europeans markets gained 0.3%, and the DJ World index was -0.6%. Economic reports for the week continued their winning streak, with positives outpacing negatives 6 to 5. On the uptick: consumer credit, the PPI, WLEI and the monetary base, plus the trade deficit and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: wholesale inventories, export/import prices, consumer sentiment and the budget deficit expanded. Next week we get a look at industrial production, the FED’s beige book and housing.
Saturday, July 14, 2012
U.S. Federal Reserve Delivers 50% Higher Stock Market Pavlovian Premium / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: David_Knox_Barker
The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of New York has just released what is essentially a stock market manipulation bragging rights report. Based on their research, they have concluded that stock prices would be 50% lower if they had not worked their magic with interest rates, quantitative easing (QE) and various other tools in their monetary toolbox, as announced at the regular Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. The report concludes that the U.S. Federal Reserve, by providing sufficient liquidity, has produced a stock market valuation pavlovian premium since 1994. They even produced a few charts to prove it.
Saturday, July 14, 2012
Where Do the Stock Markets Go From Here? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Tony_Pallotta
This week's macro view I want to spend focusing on the current market. However you want to describe it, Friday's market was odd. The best way I can describe the price action is "someone" big in the FX market did "something" big. The ramp at the open in the EUR and subsequent USD selloff on no news is something I have never seen before.
And since the FX markets are bigger than the index equity futures, I believe that is where the fuel came for the "rally." And where it gets really odd and highlights how confused and exhausted traders are is once the move was done, the day was basically over. Low volume ensued and everyone seemed afraid to fade the rally.
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Saturday, July 14, 2012
Stock Market Nothing Bullish...Nothing Bearish....Still! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Jack_Steiman
It's so easy to get bearish when the market is down three days in a row. The market being an emotional machine it's very easy to get caught up in the very short-term and play on what you think will therefore be coming. Instead of simply being bullish or bearish, maybe it's best to take a look at those daily index charts and see what the message is in them. On this six-day down trend, you can see none of the major indices went below key support at the 200-day exponential moving average. The Nasdaq 100 was actually the one index that tested it. The S&P 500 and Dow didn't come close. All of the key exponential moving averages have to go away with force in order for the bears to be in full control. Forget that there's also good support not too far below those key exponential moving averages. That would also have to be broken by the bears, but at the very least, you have to remove all of those moving averages. And that just didn't happen. Close but no cigar, my friend.
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Friday, July 13, 2012
Stocks Bear or Bull Market, Too Close to Call / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Toby_Connor
Is it a bear market, or is it a bull market, that is the question.
On one hand Europe is obviously in a recession. China is slowing dramatically, and the US economy is clearly in 'stall mode' at best, and slowing rapidly at worst. That alone would suggest that a bear market has begun.
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Friday, July 13, 2012
Euro Zone Crisis Vs the Stock Market 4 Year Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
By: Clif_Droke
Investors are worried that this summer will witness a repeat of the summer debacles of 2010 and 2011. The stock market has itself vulnerable to negative news from overseas as well as earnings disappointments. Is the market’s recent behavior a portent of worse things to come? In this commentary we’ll try and determine whether the market will fulfill the bears’ expectations or disappoint them. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 13, 2012
Euro-zone Crisis, Crossing The Rhine / Stock-Markets / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: HRA_Advisory
This month’s calendar has been chock a block with one important meeting or vote or conference after another. Any one of these could have had a large impact on the endless Euro crisis. The most impressive result (sarcasm implied) from all these meetings and votes is the overall lack of impact. For all the wild swings in both debt and equity markets things have changed little in the past month and the European muddle through continues.
Thursday, July 12, 2012
US-Economy on Brink of “Double-dip” Recession as Computer Cowboys Invade Commodity Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
By: Gary_Dorsch
For most of Wall Street’s history, trading in equities was fairly straightforward: buyers and sellers gathered on exchange floors and haggled until they struck a deal. Computerized trading of stocks didn’t arrive onto the Wall Street scene until the 1980’s. Computer guided “Program trading,” - defined by the NYSE as an order to buy or sell 15-stocks or more, valued at over $1-million total, was blamed for the “Black Monday” Crash of October 1987. Then, in 1998, the internet opened-up markets to anyone with a desktop computer, and a trading idea. Since then, computer trading programs have grown vastly more powerful and the algorithms that guide their trading vastly more sophisticated.
Thursday, July 12, 2012
High Government Deficits "Crowd Out" Stock Market Returns / Stock-Markets / Government Spending
By: Dan_Amerman
“Crowding out” is an obscure term if you're not an economist – but this replacement of the private sector economy with government spending may end up being one of the largest determinants of your standard of living during retirement. The investment problem is that the past, present and likely future of the US economy is one of rapidly growing government spending. Because the investment models that drive conventional financial planning assume a rapidly growing private sector, this sets up a fundamental competition between government growth and private sector growth for their shares of a single economy, and may lead to a collapse of stock market values and conventionally invested retirement portfolios.
Thursday, July 12, 2012
Extreme Danger Signs, U.S. Econcomy Galloping Recession, Brewing Gold Allocated Accounts Scandal / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: Jim_Willie_CB
In recent public articles, the USTreasury Bond bubble was described, supported by Interest Rate Swaps to produce artificial demand and to create an illusion of a flight to safety in toxic USGovt Bonds. A Black Hole phenomenon was described, which will suck the capital life out of most assets, celebrate the USTBond rally, and accelerate the recession in the USEconomy. Numerous endgame signals were described, all alarming in their own right, not a single signal being from the realm of normalcy. Extreme danger is the warning. This week consider just a handful of danger signposts, all screaming loudly of systemic breakdown. They are all deeply disturbing signposts that complement the endgame signals with a scattered pox of symptoms on the landscape. The Jackass is firm and rigid in maintaining that ugly forecast made in late 2008, dismissed by many as foolish and off the mark. No longer.
Thursday, July 12, 2012
You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don't realize it at the time / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Submissions
Kerry Balenthiran writes: "You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don't realize it at the time."
The above quote from Shelby Cullom Davis is particularly applicable to stock markets at present, bear markets inevitably lead to investors losing faith with the stock market. However, as values stagnate prices become better value, providing that earnings are increasing. As a long term investor, providing that we have cash to put to work, the ability to buy good quality stocks cheaply should be welcomed. The reality though is that investors in the stock market, just like homeowners, prefer prices to go up after they have bought as this confirms that they made a good decision in buying.
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Thursday, July 12, 2012
Two Myths That Stocks Bulls Continue to Cling To Were Just Rendered Moot / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Graham_Summers
Two myths that the Bulls continue to cling to were rendered moot yesterday. Those myths are:
1) That the Fed will engage in more QE.
2) That Spain is saved.
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Thursday, July 12, 2012
Stock Market Manipulation and Technical Analysis / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: Tim_Wood
As sort of a cycle in and of itself, the question of manipulation seems to periodically surface. When it does, I'm also always asked if the Dow theory or any other technical method is still valid because of all the efforts to manipulate the markets. The short answer is, Yes. While manipulation can have a temporary effect on the market, it cannot fix the problem, it cannot stop the inevitable and in the end it will only serve to make matters much worse.
Thursday, July 12, 2012
Protect Yourself With Gold Against Collapse of the Faith-Based Financial System / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Mike_Shedlock
With the LIBOR manipulation scandal and the collapse of commodity brokers MF Global and PFG Best, what is the average investor to do?
Lauren Lyster discusses the answer in a Capital Account interview with Simon Mikhailovich, co-manager of Ediesis Capital.
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Thursday, July 12, 2012
Corporate Earnings and Fed Minutes Hit The Stock Market....... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Jack_Steiman
We are going through a rough period here with regards to earnings these days. A few months back we had Chambers, head of Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO), say the economy fell off a cliff. Many criticized him, saying it was just his bad leadership that was causing their problems. They were wrong. He was right. The economy did fall off a cliff. Now we're seeing the fallout as there are a lot of companies warning. More than we've seen in quite some time. The scary part is the size of the warnings. Not what they just reported but their future guidance.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2012
How Long Will the Bidding Up of Asset Prices on Leverage Go On / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: Fred_Sheehan
The Tisch family's shipping venture (A Buyer's Market) jogged the memory. The August 26, 1985, issue of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, in which Jim Tisch discussed buying ships for less than 10% of the new construction price, included a mix of leveraged developments that appeared doomed. Some were. Some go on and on.