Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, September 12, 2011
Stock Market Downward Pressure Increases in Sepember / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Donald_W_Dony
As the S&P 500 approaches the expected low in late September, downward pressure is increasing and volatility continues to expand.
The VIX, which moves in the opposite direction to the S&P 500, has risen from a medium risk level of 24 in early August into the high risk band of over 33. At the same time, the stock index dropped from 1290 to 1120 (Chart 1).
Sunday, September 11, 2011
Stock Market Almost Ready to Fall Off a Cliff / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Andre_Gratian
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014.
SPX: Intermediate trend - After last week, it is likely that the downtrend continues. It has a tentative projection to 1065.
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Sunday, September 11, 2011
Monday Stock Market Pivot Point / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: George_Maniere
In 1940 Jesse Livermore wrote one of the classic books on the workings of the Stock Market “How to Trade in Stocks. By this time Jesse Livermore had developed a mathematical formula that incorporated what he termed “Pivot Points” in determining when to initiate a buy or a sell. When he calculated pivot points, the pivot point themselves, were the primary support or resistance of the asset. This meant that the largest price movement (either up or down) was expected to occur at this point. The other support and resistance levels were less influential, but still had the ability to generate significant price movements.
Sunday, September 11, 2011
Will Stock Markets Crash This Week? Are Years of Reckoning Dead Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Joseph_Russo
Sure the market could crash this week and deservedly so, but it doesn't really matter because it's just a ride.
Frankly, I could not care less whether the S&P crashes back down below 666 or if it catapults its way to new heights north of 2000. At the end of the day, it's just a ride.
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Sunday, September 11, 2011
Stock Market Meltdown, Bear Market Remains Probable / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Tony_Caldaro
The week started off with a meltdown in Europe. They lost 4.35% on monday while the US markets were closed. When the US market opened on tuesday, it gapped down losing about 3%, made the low for the week, rallied nearly 6% from that low, then ended the week with another meltdown in Europe (-3.20%) closing about 1% above the low for the week. Economic reports for the week were sparse with positives edging out negatives four to three.
Sunday, September 11, 2011
Credit Versus Equity The War Is Waged / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Tony_Pallotta
Bull versus bear. Greed versus fear. Smart money versus dumb money. Depression versus transitory soft patch. Credit versus equity.
In one corner is the credit market, a rather mighty opponent where $1 million defines an odd lot. Credit has spoken loudly. They have priced in a severe recession, depression whatever you want to call it.
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Saturday, September 10, 2011
Moving Average Sell Signals on the S&P Stock Market Index / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Only twice in the last 11 years (2000 & 2007) have all of my directional weekly moving averages turned down into a negative crossing, which subsequently confirmed that an acute, intermediate-term bear phase was underway.
In 2000, after the downside moving average inflection point, the S&P 500 declined from 1380 to 768 (-45%), and in 2007 the SPX declined from 1475 to 666.79 (-55%).
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Saturday, September 10, 2011
Greece Debt Default On Deck.... Stock Market Anxious... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Jack_Steiman
Late this morning, after the market started recovering from its early move lower to start the day, there was news from Germany that Greece was likely to default by some time next week. The Dow fell two hundred points in a very short period of time as traders and investors started removing themselves from long plays. Hard to blame them, of course, as this type of news, should it become fact, would be devastating for markets around the world. The market spent the rest of the day spinning and churning once we got to -300 on the Dow. There was no collapse past that initial move lower off the news, but no real rally either.
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Saturday, September 10, 2011
Prepare For A Recession and Stocks Bear Market! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Sy_Harding
Brace yourself for a recession. Central banks around the world seem to be doing so, making little effort to prevent it this time around, resigned to letting the business cycle play out.
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Saturday, September 10, 2011
Investor Opportunities Credit Crunch / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: DeepCaster_LLC
“In doing what the Swiss National Bank is doing (Ed. Pegging the Swiss Franc to the Euro), it has effectively ended the Swiss Franc as a currency.” Dennis Gartman, The Gartman Letter
Crises are Magnifying and Intensifying but are also providing Substantial Profit Opportunities, providing one knows what to focus on, and what to avoid – our dual focus here.
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Friday, September 09, 2011
Stock Market Bear Selling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Zeal_LLC
Early August’s sharp stock-market plunge ignited an explosion of bearish theories. And with the headline stock indexes still grinding along near lows over the month since, fears of a new bear market continue to proliferate today. But interestingly, the fast selling velocity that spooked traders is not characteristic of young bear markets. Instead it is a bull-market-correction phenomenon.
Friday, September 09, 2011
Fed Can’t Twist Stock Market Sell Signals Away / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The Wall Street Journal’s cover story on September 8 boldly proclaimed “Fed Prepares to Act”. The article hinted that ‘Operation Twist’ may be in the works (more on that below). Can you imagine the market’s reaction to a headline like that in the late 1990s when the Fed was looked at as some kind of miracle worker? The S&P 500 futures would have popped in the morning and inflation-protection assets would have had a strong open. On the morning of said Wall Street Journal article, the markets barely took notice of possible Fed action. This is clear evidence the markets no longer place central bankers on the miracle worker’s pedestal. It also shows fear of debt-induced deflationary outcomes is now outweighing the fear of inflation. These are significant and dangerous shifts for the market’s risk/reward profile. If this shift continues, stocks (SPY) and commodities (DBC) may experience further, and rapid declines in the next six months, if not much sooner. We added to our short positions (SH) on August 8.
Thursday, September 08, 2011
Stock Market Shorts May Prey On Serious Problems In Europe / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Chris_Ciovacco
Bridgewater Associates is the world’s largest macro hedge fund firm, meaning they have a good handle on the problems in Europe. Some excerpts from a Bloomberg article on the firm’s current outlook:
Read full article... Read full article...These days, the view from Bridgewater is dour. They divide the world into two groups: developed debtor nations that are deleveraging and emerging creditor countries that are leveraging up. After years of overspending financed by borrowing, the former are being forced to lower their debt relative to their income levels, constraining spending levels and employment gains.
Thursday, September 08, 2011
Stocks Bear Market Rally May Not have Ended / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Tim_Wood
The post March 2009 closing high for the Industrials occurred on April 29th at 12,810.54 and for the Transports that high occurred on July 7th at 5,618.25. This in turn left a Dow theory non-confirmation in place. This was then followed by a close below the March 2011 secondary low points on August 4th. As a result of this close, a Dow theory primary trend change occurred. This is the first such occurrence since the bear market rally out of the March 2009 lows began and I do not take this development lightly. But, at the same time, based on other technical factors, I also have to question this trend change.
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Thursday, September 08, 2011
Stock Market Sentiment At Extremes...Nearly Inverted... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Jack_Steiman
I started speaking about this phenomenon last week when the bull-bear spread got down to 4.3%. It was 7.6% the week before, and I must admit, I was surprised to see it drop to that 4.3% level. Then today the sentiment figures got even more bearish on the spread. Only a 1.1% spread between bulls and bears with the bulls at 38.7% and the bears at 37.6%. When levels get this low, and it is unusual that they do, getting sustainable downside action is not easy for the bears any longer. That doesn't mean there won't be down days because, of course, there will be. Some will be nasty. It just suggests that sustainable downside action will become far more difficult as the bear trade is full. When the bears are all in it gets too tough to kill the market. No different than when the bulls go all in. Upside action becomes more difficult. The bull-bear spread can invert negatively but that is rare.
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Wednesday, September 07, 2011
Stock Market Crash 1929, Mystery Unraveled? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Submissions
Wim Grommen writes: In the twenties of the last century the world, and especially the United States, experienced an economical high. As a result of this, share and stock prices rose to unprecedented heights, beyond reasonable values. The underlying economy had decreased in strength without this being reflected on the stock exchange. Investors were euphoric and stock prices were forced up against all economic logic. (1)
Wednesday, September 07, 2011
EURO Volatility and S&P Risk / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Capital3X
EUR/USD correction from 1.4550 on 29 Aug 2011 has now extended to 1.3960 levels on 6 September 2011, correction of 600 pips. We did forecast for such a move given the weakening fundamentals in EU zone and the pickup in volatility. Refer our EURO volatility charts
Wednesday, September 07, 2011
The Fed's Twisted Plan / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: PhilStockWorld
While world markets sell off, and President Obama and Congress wrangle over some form of job-creating legislation, the Federal Reserve is busy with its own problems as it attempts to deal with stubbornly high and persistent unemployment. Expectations for additional quantitative easing (QE) are running very high, but there is the possibility that the Fed may undertake a different kind of QE program, designed to provide stimulus without actually putting more money into the system.
Wednesday, September 07, 2011
How to Find Investment Opportunities from Blood, Debt and Fears / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: John_Derrick
My long-time friend and mentor Seymour Schulich forwarded an email to me that puts today’s U.S. government debt mountain startlingly into context. By removing several zeros, one can place the debt situation in terms we all can understand—that of a family’s income and expenses.
Tuesday, September 06, 2011
Stock Market Glass More Half Empty Than Half Full / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Richard_Shaw
The battle between bulls and bears is tense right now (as the attached cover image from this week's Barrons illustrates)
WHAT WE SAID BEFORE:
We have previously provided charts and data supporting the Bull case, showing high and growing earnings with historically "normal" range valuation multiples, at the same time that bonds offer little in terms of yield and must eventually go down when rates must eventually go up -- with many stocks (even the S&P 500 index) providing dividend yields competitive with 10-year Treasuries.
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